Friday 25 April 2008

A Quick Forex Guide for Traders

In this Forex course we will review some steps you need to take care before you venture into your trading journey. Most traders venture into the Forex market with little or no experience in the Forex market. This results in painful experiences like loosing most of the risk capital, frustration because it seemed so easy to make money, etc.

The first thing you need to realize is that, it is not easy to make money. As every other endeavor in life, where important rewards are to come after mastering it, you need to work hard. You need to get very well educated and experienced before having the possibility to receive important rewards on it. The key on mastering the Forex market relies on commitment, patience and discipline.

Ok, you have decided you are going to trade the Forex market, you have seen several advertisings featuring how easy is to make money in the Forex market. You might think this is your opportunity to reach your financial freedom, right away, time is money, why waiting any longer if you have the opportunity to make money now. I know, I've been there, but you have a chance now, I didn't, no body told me what I am going to tell you.

We, Forex traders, make transactions based on a set of rules. These sets of rules are what we call a Trading System. Our systems tell us the exact time where we need to get in the market and out the market in order to make a profit (i.e. buy low sell high.)

Creating a system is the first big step you need to take care first. Why is this so important? Because you need to build a system that suits your personality, otherwise you are going to find hard to follow it, thus hard to profit from.

A system can be based on technical indicators or what we called a mechanical system or based on experience and intuition or what we call discretionary systems. I highly recommend using and trying first a mechanical system, because discretionary systems are dangerous during the early stages of a Forex trader (can lead to indiscipline.) With experience, on later stages, you will find out which signals work better and which ones to avoid.

The next step in this Forex course is to try your system on a demo account. Most Forex brokers offer a demo account, an account with virtual money. This is an excellent choice to test your trading system as there is no money at risk. In this step you will figure out if the strategy works for you. If you feel comfortable trading it, then it is most likely to produce good results. How much time should you stay in this step? It varies, but you shouldn't go one step further until your system gets consistent profitable results over a period of time. It can take many months, but remember, you need to be patient.

You must be honest to yourself; you need to take every single signal generated by your system, not only the signals you thought were going to work, otherwise, you are going to have problems in the next two steps.

Ok, by know you had consistent profitable results on your demo account. You might think its time to go full. Nope, nope, nope. There is a big difference between trading a demo and a real account. The most important difference lies on emotions (fear, greed, anger, etc.) These are psychological barriers that affect every single decision made by traders regardless of what he/she is trading (stocks, bonds, Forex, futures, grains, etc.) These emotional factors, in my opinion, are the most determinant factor that separates profitable traders from the others.

The next step in this Forex course is specially designed to deal with emotions and to confirm the results obtained in the prior step (consistent results in a demo account.) At this step you need to trade in a real account with limited funds. Some brokers offer fractional lot trading. Meaning you are able to trade any desired amount (even cents.) The important thing here is that these emotions we've been talking about are present only when there is real money at risk. At this stage, you are going to see if you are really comfortable trading your system and if you are able to trade with such system, remember different systems produce different emotions. If you are able to produce similar results than those obtained in a demo account, then ready for the next step. If you didn't, then you might need to create another system, there is chance your system never fit you. If you created consistent profitable results on this stage, you have a chance to produce similar results in the next one, on the other hand, if you didn't produce good results in this stage, you will not be able to make on the next stage. Remember, you need to do things right, and be honest to yourself.

The last stage is trading in a real account with sufficient funds. If you are at this stage, and have passed successfully every prior stage, then you have a chance to make it, go ahead and try it, you need to be confident in yourself and in your system, your strategy have already produced consistent profitable results, there are reasons to believe you are going to make it. Very few traders fail at this stage (if passed successfully prior stages).

Trading successfully is no easy task, it requires a lot of work, patience, discipline, and education. By completing the steps outlined in this Forex course, you have a chance to produce profitable results. I repeat it again, you need to be honest to yourself about the results obtained in every stage. Some times you might need expert guidance regarding your system development strategies.

source straightforex.com

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Thursday 24 April 2008

Psychology of Trading Strategy (Psycho-Strategy)

What’s the Psychology of Trading Strategy (Psycho-Strategy)?

I’m sure you understand that the Psycho-strategy is a mere metaphor, however we are going to use the same Forex terminology to describe our hypothetical strategy.

The Psycho-strategy is the mind frame you have to set your mind to if you want to make constantly profit in the world of Forex. It’s the way you have to think and feel in the three stages of the trade; before opening a trade, while the trade is running and after closing the trade.

The first thing I have to advice you before reading this article is that you have to to believe that using the Psycho-strategy is not less important than using your technical and fundamental strategies if not important! if you can’t totally believe that I recommend you to skip this article and continue with your favorite technical and fundamental venerable strategies.

The Psychology of Trading Strategy (Psycho-strategy) setup:

The the Psycho-strategy uses three indicators: Discipline indicator, Greedy oscillator and Fear oscillator.We use these indicators not to tell us when to enter the market (there are much better techniques to enter the marker where the Psycho-strategy can help) but we are using them to refine our overall trading practice hence our success in the Forex world.

Let’s start with the most important indicator; the Discipline indicator:

Discipline indicator:

It is unquestionable that nobody could achieve a goal if he have not already set this goal. Give the best archer the best tools and tell him to shot aimless target! what do you think he will do?

In the Forex (and in live un general) you have to define your goal and keep it obvious if you want to achieve it. For example you have to determine how many pips you want to gain daily, weekly and monthly from your trading.

Your goal have to be realistic, attainable and measurable: realistic goal means you have to set a goal that is not impossible for you and anybody to achieve, for example you can be a millionaire from trading Forex for few weeks or months. attainable goal means you can easily achieve the goal for example gaining 100 pips daily is not impossible in Forex trading so it’s a realistic goal but 25 pips per day is more attainable goal, get it?

The goal you have set have to be measurable which means you can easily say I’ve achieved my goal of today or this month. Goals like “I want to be a millionaire or I want to get the maximum pips the market could offer” are not measurable goals.

The first line in the Discipline indicator is the Goal line, the second line in the Discipline indicator is the Rules line.

Any successful person has his set of rules which he extremely bind himself to it, you too have to set you trading rules and obey them to the end, for example one of successful traders rules “Set stop loss before trade”.

You have to discover your trading rules and more important to obey them to the end, of course you can change this rules occasionally (i.e. every six months you have to review your trading rules) but once you have set them you can’t change them “Rules couldn’t’ be changed while playing the game”.

The Discipline indicator now has two lines: Goal line and Rules line; these lines have to be unbreakable, untouchable, you have to limit you trade between these lines and don’ let Greedy or Fear indicators to breaks your Goal and Rules lines.

Fear and Greedy oscillators:

The fear making of loss and Greedy of making more profits are very like bulls and bears that imagined fighting each others and move the market accordingly. Both of the fear and greedy trying to break your Discipline indicators lines.

Fear of losing maybe advising you to ignore setting stop loss for you trade and break one of your trade rules. Fear maybe asking you to close a profitable trade once the market start to move against you for awhile.

Greedy acts the same trying to break your rules but inversely of fear; Greedy will tell you to continue in a profitable trade although you Goal has been achieved seeking more pips. Greedy will advice you to remove your trailing stop hoping o make the maximum of he market.

As long as Fear indicator and Greedy indicator oscillate between the Discipline upper line - Goal line - and lower line - Rules line - you will constantly make profits with the Psycho-strategy!

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Forex Trading Strategies - Stop-Loss - Do You Need to Use It Right Now? Pros and Cons

There are pros and cons of using stop-loss in your forex trading strategy. In this article I want to summarize the most important points of this topic and help you to understand if you need to use this trading instrument or not.

Pros:

You cut down your losses, so no matter what happens and no matter how the market moves, you won't lose more money than you set. This is also the main purpose for using this order.

You protect your deposit from the sudden big market movements against you. Remember - they can always happen, and this doesn't depend on your trading system. But you can protect your money from this dangerous trends by using stop-loss forex trading strategy and setting it properly according to your trading rules.

You can calculate your maximum total loss for your trading system. It usually happens on the "bad" market for your system and is a result of series of losses that come in a row. This wi! ll help you manage your risks better. Knowing the weak points of your system, you can always set your trading lots so you don't lose too much money even if things go the worst way.

Cons:

If your stop loss order was executed and than market movement changes, you can't profit from it because your deal is already closed. So you can't recoup your losses if your forex trading strategy doesn't imply opening additional deals to cover the losses.

Sometimes market is "stormy" - volatility increased, no particular trend. This usually happens when some important news comes out. On this market trader usually opens a lot of positions, and a lot of stop-loss orders execute again and again. This can summarize into one big loss.

You need to consider certain currency pair's volatility - and then set your stop losses according to it. If your SL (stop-losses) are too small it will cause a lot of series of small losse! s that can result into a big one. If your SL are too large, on! e loss c an drain all your profits, so your bottom line will be near to zero. So you need to take into consideration the volatility of the currency pairs you're working with.

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Popular Technical Analysis Tools

Technical Analysis is probably the most common and successful method of making trading decisions and analyzing forex and commodities markets.

Technical analysis differs from fundamental analysis in that technical analysis is applied only to the price action of the market, ignoring fundamental factors. As fundamental data can often provide only a long-term or "delayed" forecast of exchange rate movements, technical analysis has become the primary tool with which to successfully trade shorter-term price movements, and to set stop loss and profit targets.

Technical analysis consists primarily of a variety of technical studies, each of which can be interpreted to generate buy and sell decisions or to predict market direction.

Support and Resistance Levels

One use of technical analysis, apart from technical studies, is in deriving "support" and "resistance" levels. The concept here is that the market will tend to trade above its support levels and trade below its resistance levels. If a support or resistance level is broken, the market is then expected to follow through in that direction. These levels are determined by analyzing the chart and assessing where the market has encountered unbroken support or resistance in the past.

Popular Technical Analysis Tools

Moving Averages (MA) : Indicators used to smooth price fluctuations and identify trends. The most basic type of moving average, the simple moving average, is the average of the past x bars ending with the current bar;

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Indicator that utilizes moving averages to identify possible trends and an oscillator to determine when a trend is overbought or oversold;

Bollinger Bands : Bands that are placed x moving average standard deviations above and below a simple MA line;

Fibonacci Retracement Levels : Indicator used to identify potential levels of support and resistance;

Directional Movement Index (DMI) : A positive line (+DI) measuring buying and a negative line (-DI) measuring selling pressure;

Relative Strength Index (RSI) : Momentum oscillator that is plotted on a vertical scale from 0 to 100;

Stochastics : Momentum oscillator that measure momentum by comparing the recent close to the absolute price range (high of the range minus the low of the range) over a period of x bars;

Trendlines : Straight line on a chart that connects consecutive tops or consecutive bottoms of prices and is utilized to identify levels of support and resistance;

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Wednesday 16 April 2008

Forex Technical Analysis - Symmetrical Triangles Use Them Correctly For Huge Profits!

If you want to use forex technical analysis and base your forex trading strategy on forex charts then you need reliable chart patterns to trade and they don't come much better than the symmetrical triangle which if traded correctly can give you some great high odds trades and big profits...

As with all chart formation the symmetrical triangle is rooted in investor psychology, so lets look at how and why they form.

Why a Symmetrical Triangle Forms

Symmetrical triangles can be seen as areas of indecision in the market as it pauses and future direction is uncertain.

Typically, the forces of supply and demand at that the time the triangle is forming are considered nearly equal. Attempts to push the currency higher are quickly met by selling into the rally, on the other hand dips are seen as good value and see buying.

Each new lower top and higher bottom becomes more shallow than the last, which gives the symmetrical triangle is distinctive shape.

Eventually, this indecision gives way to action as market sentiment breaks out or in many cases explodes out of this formation.

They normally feature low volatility before a breakout and low volatility when followed by high volatility means the market has decided where to push prices.

They very often form before major events such as economic reports where traders are waiting to see the outcome of the report and how it will affect prices. They can form before important geo- political events as well and are very much a wait and see formation"

A Continuation Pattern

Research has shown that symmetrical triangles normally resolve themselves in the direction of the trend. This means the pattern is normally classed as a continuation pattern.

Taking the Move

Its always best to wait for the break from the triangle and not try and predict the move in advance - wait for confirmation and use a momentum indicator to time your trade. We love using the stochastic indicator (discussed in our other articles) and looking for an up turn in momentum to accompany the move.

We find that the narrower the triangle becomes and the longer it takes to form the better the signal will tend to be.

If you are suing forex charts then you really should look to trade symmetrical triangles, there a great reliable formation and when prices break you can get some high odds trades and great forex profits.

If you want to learn forex technical analysis then make symmetrical triangles, an essential part of your forex education.

By Monica Hendrix

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Monday 14 April 2008

What is Carry Trade?

Additional Information
In an ever changing world, making profitable carry trades* (definition below) are not as easy as they use to be. Therefore we have created a dynamic carry basket that changes when the monetary policy outlook for a central bank changes or if there is significant event risk ahead. Follow the performance of the DailyFX Dynamic Carry Trade Basket.

What is Carry Trade
All that is needed to understand the carry trade concept is a basic knowledge of foreign exchange and interest rates differentials. Money shifts from around the world in seek of the highest yield and the benefit of trading currencies is that you are dealing with countries that have interest rates, which are charged or received every single day. If you are positioned on the side of positive carry, you have the right to earn that interest, which can be quite lucrative over time.

Protective Stop-Loss
Substantial gains made from interest rate differentials provide undeniable evidence that the carry trade strategy has been very successful over the past few years. Still, this strategy involves significant risks and an adequate protective stop is required. We are using a protective stop-loss equivalent to five times the average true range.

Position Sizing
Our position size varies according to each currency volatility. Generally, the more volatile the currency is, the fewer lots we trade. For example, let's assume you have $10,000 and you are trading 10K lots, you decide to limit your risk per trade to 3% or $300 and the 90 days average true range for the EURUSD is 100 pips. In this case, if you go long EUR/USD you could buy 3 lots, since ($10000 * 3%) divided by (0.0100*10K) = 3 lots. In case the final result is not an integer you should always rounded it down to limit your exposure.

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Forex Trading Strategy and Global Market Concerns

About forex trading strategy
A complete forex trading strategy is needed in order to dominate the global market. This article is helpful to a beginner trying to learn forex, to the skilled forex trader. The foreign exchange currency market is a popular place for specialized traders and brokers to trade world currencies. Known as Forex, the foreign exchange market is complex in the way it is influenced by a variety of factors and variables in world economies. Forex trading strategy is trading on a global scale, with local factors making impacts in a global market.
In recent news, worry about the current markets, bank and commercial trends have the Forex market in a bit of a bind. Forex analysts are saying that the U.S. economy is hinging on the labor market. Many use the U.S. currency as a safe zone for their funds as part of their Forex trading strategy. For those who are yearning to learn Forex trading, all of the global markets and current conditions and stabilities can seem a bit much to keep up with.
Many Forex trading strategy plans involve using indicators that can be applied to different currencies to help develop a Forex trading system that is universal. Currently, the labor market is an indicator many are looking at and the impact it will have on Forex trading strategy and the U.S. economy. The job growth in August will be a major factor on the Fed’s decision to further cut rates to spur the economy or leave rates alone.
Many in Forex training feel that 100,000 will be the benchmark or breaking point for the Fed. If job growth in August was less than 100,00 the threat of a recession increases and could lead to another cut in rates to offset the threat. If the job growth last month was greater than 100,000 then the market could stabilize for a bit and rate cuts might not occur. In the mean time it’s up in the air at the moment for Forex trading strategy for U.S. currency.


Forex(fx) Trading Strategy
A forex trading strategy can provide profit for a skilled speculator. A FX trading strategy is, simply put, a method for using foreign exchange rates of currency from various countries to buy one country’s currency when it is undervalued, and exchange it for another country’s currency with it is of normal or higher value, with the difference being profit.
A common forex trading strategy could involve US dollars and the Euro, the official currency of most European countries. To use a simple example of a forex trading strategy, a speculator would buy Euros when they were undervalued; let’s say two Euros equaled one US dollar. This would be unusual because normally the two currencies are almost equal.
By spending one hundred US dollars to buy two hundred Euros a speculator would be able to buy more goods in Germany, France or other European countries. When the market changed and became more even, the speculator would have twice as many goods as he normally would have, and would be able to exchange those goods for US dollars once again.
The difference would be profit. This is a very simple explanation of a forex trading strategy, but gives the basics to the new speculator.Of course, when coming up with a forex trading strategy the trader should only use money that he or she can afford to loose. This is speculation, as opposed to investment. The chances for profit are real, and could come quick but if the market turns the opposite way than expected the trader could actually loose money.
A forex strategy can reap large profits, but if anyone tells you that all trades will result in profit, they haven’t studied the market as well as they should have and they are not correct. Still having a sound forex trading strategy for a competent businessman can be a profitable venture. It requires study of the markets, which takes time and is usually best accomplished by reading financial newsletters and using tools available on the Internet.
Getting the advice of a professional forex trading strategy specialist can also be a sound choice. Professionals have the time, education and skills and can generally help a trader come up with a forex trading strategy that will result in profit more often than one could do without their help.The most sound forex trading strategy options are generally used by large multinational corporations who are often able to make steady profits.
Watching what large corporations do who are involved in forex trading, looking for patterns they may have set, can help a trader to get the benefit of the very expensive expertise used by these large companies. Making watching of the large traders a part of a person’s education is definitely a good place to start a forex trading education. Identifying the state of the market, determining the time frame you are working in, and the currencies that have fluctuation and getting the advice of professionals through self study can be the wisest forex trading strategy option available.


Setting The Strategy
When building a strategy using Forex Strategy Builder you should think for the long position only! When the testing algorithm of the program calculates the strategy, it performs mirror logic for both position directions. It is not necessary for the logic of the short position to be entered into the program. It makes this automatically.
The Open Strategy will send orders with price Price Open of the bar, but because of no filters to determine the direction. Two orders will be sent: Buy Market Order and Sell Market Order in the same time. The first order will open a position and the second one will close it immediately. The result is Position Neutral and Loss equal to the Spread.

Forex Trading Strategy Reviews
Bought this method a while back, a solid trading method that is VERY good. I do not like sitting at my computer so the long term method is great for this. Profitable ..... Oh yes. This method is not based in indicators rather fibnacci ONLY. I read the manual front to back 2,3 times then started to implement it, by far the best method to date I have come across.
Plus the eBook reads in a "just the facts ma'am" manner so if you're already familiar with trading concepts such as money management you can get a trading system going pretty quickly. I don't like going to seminars or buying fancy multimedia CDs. I just had to do about a month of paper trading with the system in order to get really confident and then I started making money.


Hedging Strategies In Forex
There are two new Forex articles that I have uploaded on my site today. They are written by Mary McArthur and they both are about hedging in Forex. Hedging is a simultaneous buying and selling of the same trading instrument. It has a great potential on the volatile and less trendy markets. One articles describes the Forex hedging in general, while another is about a grid hedging system, which exploits the fast swings in both direction on such currency pairs as GBP/JPY and GBP/USD:

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Sunday 13 April 2008

Forex Trading Strategies for Advanced Traders

The Forex Trading Strategies I Use Every Day to Make Consistent Profits

If you've been trading for a while, you know how hard it can be to find profitable trading strategies. There are so many forex strategies on the market today, it's very difficult finding ones that work and sifting through all the other ones that don't do squat.
That's why I created this section of the website. This is for the advanced traders who have used a forex broker, know how to trade, know what take profit targets are, stop loss targets etc. If you don't know what I'm talking about then you should not continue with this page because it will be confusing. Please visit our Novice Forex Traders section to learn more.
For the advanced traders still with me, I’d like to share some forex trading strategies that have worked well for me and I think are some of the best out there. As I mentioned in the About ForexBoost section, I’ve tried a lot of different trading strategies, and the ones I’m about to share are the best ones I’ve found. I mention these strategies on the website, but this area explains them more in detail. These strategies are in no particular order.

Forex Hidden Systems - Teaches 4 forex trading strategies. Three of them are day trading strategies and one is a swing trading strategy. These are very easy to learn and use so they're perfect for new and experienced traders.

The Forex-Killer - This is a trade signal program for generating Buy, Sell or No Trade signals.

The Forex Trading Machine - Teaches 3 very easy to use forex trading strategies. Two are day trading strategies and one is a longer term forex trading strategy.

The Blade Forex Strategies - This also teaches 3 forex trading strategies. One is for quick scalps and the other two are for longer term trades.

Trading TIPS:

Tip #1: One very important tip is to never execute any technical trades when important financial news releases are due out. News can cause market volitility and can knock you out of good technical trades. I always start my technical trades when news is out of the way. A great news calendar to use if the Forexfactory News Calendar. I always have this calendar open every day so I know what news events are due out.

Tip #2: I personally do not get into any new trades between the hours of 11am and 2am EST. The best times to trade are the London Session into the NY session. Trading start to get going around 1:30am EST and starts to slow down around 11am EST. Price can be too unpredictable for my taste outside the hours or 2am and 11am EST so I dont' trade. The only time I break this rule is if there's a "tape bomb". A tape bomb is an unexpected news anouncement that shocks the market. This can cause the financial markets to go crazy and I don't want to miss out if I can trade it. A great example of a tape bomb was when the Fed announced they did a surprise 50 basis point interest rate cut before the financial markets opened. This was huge and we shorted the dollar immediately once we heard this announcement. A lot of traders made a killing that day. Tape bombs don't happen often but when they do, they're the best way to make easy money in the forex market.

source www.forexboost.com

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Wednesday 9 April 2008

Inverted Pyramid Based Forex Trading Strategies

As a trader, you must develop a Forex trading strategy that will allow you to quickly identify flaws and make adjustments while continuing to trade. A classic approach used to evaluate risks in the currency trading system is the inverted pyramid approach. All macroeconomic factors that affect a chosen currency pair are a function of the top of the inverted pyramid. All technical factors are considered as you move down to the bottom of the pyramid. Traders assign weight to different parts of the pyramid. Purely technical traders may apply more weight to the bottom of the inverted pyramid (upside down triangle) while fundamental traders may apply more weight at the top.
In order to make use of the inverted pyramid you will need to understand the macroeconomic factors that are a function of the top of the inverted pyramid. These include international issues that influence the global trading community. These types of issues may be gauged from news reports and news feeds with global coverage. News networks, such as CNN, provide up to date coverage of terrorism, oil prices and other such issues.
In order to account for the technical factors that apply to the pyramid, you will need to determine specifics and sediment in the particular market within which you are trading and also for any market that impacts the market within which you are trading. You must decide the type of technical indicators that will be used in your Forex trading strategy. Some traders rely upon randomness and chance while others engage more complicated mathematical computations to calculate weighted moving averages. You must be able to develop and visualize a picture of the market, which identifies events that are of importance to affect the market. You also need to develop a general feel about the market. News reports and specific market reports will assist you in developing a picture of the market and also indicate of the direction in which the market is headed.
You will need to determine which currency pairs are volatile in relation to the macroeconomic environment and market conditions that have been identified. You will need to have knowledge of the market in order to identify and differentiate market indicators from events that bear no real significance. Your analysis of acquired data should indicate whether price movements represent a trend or volatility in the currency trading system. You will then be able to use this analysis to narrow your options to trades that offer the most potential.
You must be able to set floors and ceilings in your technical analysis to establish trading levels and then use those levels in your Forex trading strategy. Technical patterns that indicate the direction of trades in specific currency pairs should be developed. Once you have narrowed down to a specific currency pair for trade, you will then need to reexamine its market sediment as it applies to the technical analysis. You will have to identify entry and exit points for your chosen trades.
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Andrew Daigle is the owner, creator and author of many successful websites including ForexBoost at http://www.forexboost.com/ and http://forex-trading-system.typepad.com/ , Free Forex Training Resource for the Novice and Advanced Forex trader.

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Monday 7 April 2008

Combines Physics Into New Technical Analysis

Stock market and options trader Richard Lees has combined physics, pattern recognition and technical analysis to form several new “pH-Indicators” to guide him in trading.
Lees is a money manager and president of Richard Lees Capital Management in the Studio City area of Los Angeles. He is a featured speaker at the Telerate Seminars 20th annual Technical Analysis Group (TAG 20) conference here this weekend.

“I began to trade the markets in 1982 when, after my father died, managing family money arose literally from a life-and-death situation as my responsibility in the family. So the enterprise has, from day one, left me with little patience for hypothetical market methods,” said Lees.

He has studied technicals, fundamentals and systems trading that combined them both. “Eventually, I felt my own way to what worked in real time and with real money,” he said.

After some valuable additional encouragement from one of the “wizards” in Jack Schwager’s book, “Market Wizards,” Lees developed an entirely new set of indicators.

“The indicator set, which is what I’m introducing for the first time in public at TAG 20 in Las Vegas, is called The pH-Indicators. And they are elastic, or what I
like to call liquid oscillators. They do not reach, what conventional oscillators call ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold,’ but rather establish trend points which give signals, although in all timeframes. I use them on everything from intermediate signals on the stock market to day trading.”

Lees said three proprietary indicators are literally enough for him to reviewuate the stock market.

“One is pH-F, my fundamental indicator, and keys off the S&P earnings yield rather than its price-earnings ratio. This has kept me on the right side of the bull market of the 1990s.

“Second is pH-L, my Liquidity Indicator, which sits at the heart on my work. It is a simple, but I think elegant, way I’ve found to connect what the Federal Reserve is doing in the real economy with how the stock market is valuing that real economy.

“Last is pH-I, my Market Internals indicator, which gives me everything technical I need to know about market action in one indicator. It’s kind of an updated version of TRIN, and it was formed at least in part because of my simultaneous admiration for and disappointment in TRIN. I would emphasize that I consider Richard Arms one of the true brilliant men in technical analysis, and I’ve long admired his work. It’s just that I found what I consider a more immediate and fast-changing indicator which I believe is more suited to the electronic markets of today and tomorrow.”

Lees said he then combines what these indicators are telling him about the market to produce an Overall Market-pH number, which is also the percentage he will be invested at any given time in the market. (i.e., if the Overall Market-pH is 9.3, he wants to be 93% in the market with his stock picks.)

Then he uses a 21-point Screen he developed for picking stocks, which essentially identifies “a key data signature that I’ve found over the years selects value just before it’s about to become growth.”

“I’m effectively always in the market then, but at different levels of commitment. I believe in stock picking, not mutual fund investing, as I believe money managers should be paid for picking stocks, not other money managers.”

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Wednesday 2 April 2008

Forex Calculating Profit & Order Type

As we have specified in earlier page, in order to calculate the pip value or how much is one pip, you have to know some additional information such as: trading size (how many lots), leverage used, and the actual rate of the pair for which you want to calculate the pip value

Calculation Formula for currencies with USD as quote currency (or X/USD such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD)
(Selling Price - Buying Price) x lot size x number of lots = Profit / Loss
Example :
  • Buy 3 standard lots EUR/USD at 1.2000
  • Sell (liquid) 3 lots EUR/USD at 1.2010
  • Profit = (1.2010 - 1.2000) x 100.000 x 3 = $300
  • Sell 1 standard lot GBP/USD at 2.0001
  • Buy (liquid) 1 lot GBP/USD at 2.0000
  • Profit = (1.2001 - 1.2000) x 100.000 x 1 = $10

Simple method :

As you can see from example number 1 and 2, for every standard lot (100K) the profit is $10/pip.

How to calculate profit per pip ? Profit/pip = total profit / total pips

  • Example number 1 : $300/3 = $10/pip
  • Example number 2 : $10/1 = $10/pip

Conclusion : (applies for x/USD Pair only !)

  • For every 1 standard lot, profit (loss) = $10/pip
  • For every 1 mini lot, profit (loss) = $1/pip
  • For every 1 micro lot, profit (loss) = $0.1/pip

Calculation Formula for currencies with USD as base currency (or USD/X such as USD/JPY and USD/CHF)

[ (Selling Price - Buying Price) / Closing (liquidating) Price ] x lot size x number of lots = Profit / Loss

Example :

  • Buy 1 standard lot USD/JPY at 110.00
  • Sell (liquid) 1 lot USD/JPY at 110.01
  • Profit = [ (110.01 - 110.00) / 110.01 ] x 100.000 x 1 = $9.09

Calculation Formula for mixed currencies (such as EUR/JPY) [ (Selling Price - Buying Price) / USD/JPY Closing Price] x lot size x number of lots = Profit / Loss

Example :

  • Buy 1 standard lot EUR/JPY at 162.70
  • Sell (liquid) 1 lot EUR/JPY at 162.71 USD/JPY closing price of the previous day is 118.10
  • Profit = [ (162.71 - 162.70) / 118.10 ] x 100.000 x 1 = $8.47

Please note :

If you open a Buy position (going Long), you will open with offer price, and will have to use bid price while selling it back (liqudating, closing, stop loss, and taking profit)

If you open a Sell position (going Short), you will open with bid price, and will have to use offer price while selling it back (liqudating, closing, stop loss, and taking profit)

Profit Target, Stop Loss, and Trailing Stop

Profit Target is a target point at which you want to liquidate your position in profit automatically, when the market price hits it. This means, you dont have to monitor your open positions all the time, just set a profit target, and once market price hits it, your position will be closed in profit automatically

Stop Loss order ensures a particular position is automatically liquidated at a predetermined price in order to limit potential losses if the market moves against an investor's trade.

  • If you open a Buy or Long Position, profit target level should be placed Higher than opening price.
  • If you open a Sell or Short Position, stop loss level should be placed Lower than opening price.

Example :

  • Buy (Long) EUR/USD 1.2000 (offer price)
  • Profit Target 1.2050 (50 pips profit target, bid price)
  • Stop Loss 1.1950 (50 pips stop loss, bid price)
  • Sell (Short) EUR/USD 1.2000 (bid price)
  • Profit Target 1.1950 (50 pips profit target, offer price)
  • Stop Loss 1.2050 (50 pips stop loss, offer price)

Trailing Stop is an kind of stop loss. This function enables you to automatically set stop loss level whenever the profit you got has exceeded the minimum trailing stop level. If the profit has not exceeded minimum trailing stop level, it will not work ! Please keep in mind that trailing stop usually is executed directly from your computer (client software), not your broker's server so it is highly recommended to put a stop loss besides trailing stop.

The objective of trailing stop is to protect your profit if the market moves against your position so the profit will never go anywhere.

If Trailing stop level is set to 10 pips. Right after your position has reached profit more than trailing stop level (more than 10), then the stop loss will be set to 10 pips away from your open position to protect your profit . Lets say you have already got 10 pips profit, then trailing stop will put a stop loss to 0 (10 pips away from open). If your profit is 20, then stop loss will adjust the stop loss to 10 points profit (still 10 pips awa from open).

Example :

Trailing stop = 10 pips, You open a buy position at 1.2000, suddenly price moves to 1.2010, trailing stop set a stop loss at 1.2000 (Break Even). Market keeps moving to 1.2020, trailing stop level will be adjusted to 1.2010 (10 pips profit), and so on.

Basic Forex Order Types

There are 3 basic order types to trade currencies. They are called Market Order, Stop and Limit Pending Orders.

Market Order is an order to go Long (Buy) or short (Sell) at the current market price. You can't edit these rates.

Example :

Your trading software shows a quote for GBP/USD is at 1.9996 (bid)/2.0000 (ask). This means you can order a buy position at 2.0000 or you can order a sell position at 1.9996 at the moment.

But if you are willing to place an order at different price, you need to use Stop or Limit Pending Orders.

Stop Pending Order :

There are 2 benefits of using Stop Pending Orders :

  • Stop Buy Order is used when you want to Buy above the current market price. Example : Current price is at 1.2000, and you want to Buy only if the market hits 1.2050. You can set a Stop Buy at 1.2050
  • Stop Sell Order is used when you want to Sell below the current market price Example : Current price is at 1.2000, and you want to Sell only if the market hits 1.1950. You can set a Stop Sell at 1.1950

Limit Pending Order :

There are 2 benefits of using Limit Pending Orders :

  • Limit Buy Order is used when you want to Buy below the current market price.

Example :

Current price is at 1.2000, and you want to Buy only if the market hits 1.1950. You can set a Limit Buy at 1.1950

  • Limit Sell Order is used when you want to Sell above the current market price

Example :

Current price is at 1.2000, and you want to Sell only if the market hits 1.2050. You can set a Limit Sell at 1.2050

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